This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

« Back to Results

Economics of Crime

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 6, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

Atlanta Marriott Marquis, International 1
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Mark Cohen, Vanderbilt University

Behavioral Reactions to Crime: Time Use, Labor and Health Behaviors

Rodrigo Aranda Balcazar
,
Tulane University

Abstract

In this paper, I address mostly unmeasured external costs of high profile acts of violence: changes in individual behaviors due to indirect exposure to these acts and whether they create unexpected costs for individuals and society.
To address this, I measure the impact of indirect exposure to mass shootings on daily activity levels, hours worked and mental health outcomes using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), Current Population Survey (CPS), Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) and exploiting variation in time and geographical location of 45 mass shootings spanning from 2003 to 2016.
I find that being within 500 miles shortly after a mass shooting, overall activity levels decrease by 1.4 percent measured in metabolic equivalents of task (MET). This decrease in activity is equivalent to walking 14 minutes less per day. The decrease is highest for women, younger individuals and African Americans. Also, individuals spend less time in public places and doing recreational activities and sports.
In addition, I show that exposure to these events leads to a 2.1 percent increase in days where perceived mental health was not good. Finally, I find a 0.5 percent decrease in hours worked which is equivalent to 10.7 minutes a week, and this decrease that is greater for women.
These results show that aside from direct victims, mass shootings also have an impact on the behavior of a broader portion of the population.

Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration

Ashna Arora
,
University of Chicago

Abstract

Current policy debates suggest that state prosecutors may have been a key force behind the historic rise in US incarceration. This paper investigates how state prosecutors of differing po- litical affiliations influence county-level incarceration. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation generated by close elections, I find that Republican prosecutorial offices sentence defendants to longer incarceration spells as compared to their Democratic and Independent counterparts. This increase in incarceration length is driven by longer sentences for both violent and prop- erty offenses, and translates into a persistent increase in incarceration. These sentencing and incarceration enhancements do not lower crime at the county level, indicating that, in terms of public safety, the marginal return to the tough-on-crime stance may be close to zero.

Sparking the #MeToo Revolution in India: The "Nirbhaya" Case in Delhi

Aparna Mathur
,
American Enterprise Institute
Akshay Bhatnagar
,
University of Texas-Austin
Abdul Munasib
,
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Devesh Roy
,
International Food Policy Research Institute

Abstract

In 2012, anger erupted on the streets of Delhi following the violent rape and murder of a young woman. The scale of the protests, the extent of the media coverage, and the intensity of the public’s opprobrium of the police and the administration of Delhi, was unprecedented. This paper argues that these events had a measurable impact on the reporting of crimes against women – rape and other sexual assaults – in Delhi. The sweeping public debates may have lessened the stigma typically associated with reporting such crimes. Further, an intense media focus on how the authorities in Delhi were handing these complaints, may have provided women of Delhi greater confidence to report these crimes. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate the impact of the 2012 incident on the reporting of crimes against women in Delhi. Our estimates show a significant increase in crime reporting relative to a combination of other states and federally administered areas in India that are used to construct a counterfactual Delhi. We suggest that nearly all of this is a consequence of a greater willingness to report such crimes, rather than the result of improved law and order condition. While reported crimes increased, the convictions rate did not change significantly.

Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism

Cody Tuttle
,
University of Maryland-College Park

Abstract

I estimate the effect of access to Food Stamps on criminal recidivism. In 1996, a federal welfare reform imposed a lifetime ban from Food Stamps on convicted drug felons. Florida modified this ban, restricting it to drug traffickers who commit their offense on or after August 23, 1996. I exploit this sharp cutoff in a regression discontinuity design and find that the ban increases recidivism among drug traffickers. The increase is driven by financially motivated crimes, suggesting that the cut in benefits causes ex-convicts to return to crime to make up for the lost transfer income.

The Collateral Consequences of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio

Samuel Norris
,
University of Chicago
Matthew Pecenco
,
University of California-Berkeley
Jeffrey Weaver
,
University of California-San Diego

Abstract

The United States incarcerates over 2 million people annually, but an even larger number of individuals are affected by the criminal justice system as family members of the incarcerated. In this paper, we provide the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of incarceration on prisoners' children and siblings in the United States. We leverage the random assignment of cases to judges in Ohio as a source of exogenous variation in incarceration, and use linked administrative data to measure outcomes for family members. In contrast to most existing work, we find that incarceration reduces criminal involvement among the children and siblings of prisoners. Parental incarceration decreases the likelihood of juvenile incarceration by 2.3 percentage points (45 percent) and adult incarceration by 2.6 percentage points (29 percent), with similar estimates for the effect of sibling incarceration. The reductions are concentrated among children from poorer neighborhoods and those who experience maternal rather than paternal incarceration. At the same time, parental incarceration increases rates of teen parenthood and reduces high school graduation rates. We show that these effects are most consistent with exposure to incarceration having a specific deterrent effect on child criminal activity, although the stresses associated with parental incarceration simultaneously harm children in other domains.

The Effect of Own-Gender Juries on Conviction Rates

Mark Hoekstra
,
Texas A&M University
Brittany Street
,
Texas A&M University

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which criminal conviction rates are affected by the similarity in
gender of the defendant and jury. To identify effects, we exploit random variation in both the assignment to jury pools and the ordering of potential jurors. We do so using detailed administrative data on the juror selection process and trial proceedings for two large counties in Florida. Results indicate that own-gender juries result in significantly lower conviction rates on drug charges, though we find no evidence of effects for other charges. Estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in expected own-gender jurors (10 percentage points) results in an 18 percentage point reduction in conviction rates on drug charges, which is highly significant even after adjusting for multiple comparisons.This results in a 13 percentage point decline in the likelihood of being sentenced to at least some jail time. These findings highlight how drawing an opposite-gender jury can impose significant costs on defendants, and demonstrate that own-gender bias can occur even in settings where the importance of being impartial is actively pressed on participants.
JEL Classifications
  • K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior