American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Explaining the Evolution of Educational Attainment in the United States
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 8,
no. 3, July 2016
(pp. 77–112)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
We study the evolution of educational attainment of the 1932-1972 cohorts using a human capital investment model with heterogeneous learning ability. Inter-cohort variation in schooling is driven by changes in skill prices, tuition, and education quality over time, and average learning ability across cohorts. Under static expectations the model accounts for the main empirical patterns. Rising skill prices for college explain the rapid increase in college graduation until the 1948 cohort. The decline in average learning ability, calibrated to match the evolution of test scores, explains half of the stagnation in college graduation between the 1948 and 1972 cohorts.Citation
Castro, Rui, and Daniele Coen-Pirani. 2016. "Explaining the Evolution of Educational Attainment in the United States." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8 (3): 77–112. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20130139Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- I23 Higher Education; Research Institutions
- I24 Education and Inequality
- I26 Returns to Education
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
- N32 Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
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