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  5. Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

Journal of Economic Perspectives

ISSN 0895-3309 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7965 (Online)

Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

  • Victor Zarnowitz
Journal of Economic Perspectives
vol. 13, no. 2, Spring 1999
(pp. 69–90)
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Abstract

The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation, and interest rates. The author discusses new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth and demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume, and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral.

Citation

Zarnowitz, Victor. 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13 (2): 69–90. DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.2.69

JEL Classification

  • E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E22 Capital; Investment; Capacity
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