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  5. The Curse of Plenty: The Green Revolution and the Rise in Chronic Disease

American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics

ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)

The Curse of Plenty: The Green Revolution and the Rise in Chronic Disease

  • Sheetal Sekhri
  • Gauri Kartini Shastry
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (Forthcoming)

Abstract

The rising rate of chronic disease is a leading driver of the global disease burden. Yet its determinants are not fully understood. We examine the unanticipated contribution of the Green Revolution to the rise in chronic, diet-related diseases by exploiting the faster adoption of high-yield rice and wheat in groundwater-rich districts in India. We find that boys exposed to the Green Revolution during gestation and early childhood in areas with greater adoption of new staple varieties were more likely to develop diabetes as adults. Exploring mechanisms, we find that the impact on diabetes differs in households with different dietary habits. We detect no impact on non-diet-related chronic diseases, such as cancer, asthma, and tuberculosis. We conclude that dietary changes can undermine the long-term health benefits of positive income shocks in early childhood, highlighting the need for agricultural and public health policy to emphasize dietary diversity in addition to calorie availability.

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